Macroeconomic situation
| T014 | GDP DEVELOPMENT | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| in % | 2023 1) | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | |
| World | 2.7 | 3.1 | 6.2 | -2.9 | 2.7 | |
| Europe | 0.6 | 3.7 | 6.5 | -5.8 | 1.7 | |
| Germany | -0.2 | 1.9 | 3.1 | -4.2 | 1.1 | |
| North America | 2.3 | 2.1 | 5.8 | -2.4 | 2.4 | |
| South America2) | 2.2 | 4.0 | 7.1 | -6.6 | 0.8 | |
| Asia / Pacific | 4.5 | 3.3 | 6.6 | -0.7 | 4.0 | |
| - China | 5.4 | 3.0 | 8.5 | 2.2 | 6.0 | |
| Middle East | 1.0 | 7.0 | 4.6 | -4.4 | 1.2 | |
| Africa | 3.1 | 3.9 | 4.7 | -2.2 | 2.6 | |
| Source: Global Insight World Overview as of 15.01.2024 1) Forecast. 2) Excluding Venezuela. |
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World economic growth subdued in financial year 2023
Global economic growth slowed in 2023. The growth rate was 2.7%, compared with 3.1% the previous year. Asia/Pacific is the region with the fastest growth rate at 4.5% (previous year: 3.3%). In Europe, the economy grew by 0.6% (previous year: 3.7%). Economic output in Germany fell by 0.2% (previous year: +1.9%).
Euro up against most main currencies
On average, the euro gained against most main currencies over the course of the year. The average exchange rate against the US dollar was 3% higher than the previous year. The euro likewise gained in value against the Chinese renminbi and the Japanese yen, by 8% and 10% respectively. The euro rose by 2% against the British pound. Against the Swiss franc, the euro fell by an average of 3%.
| T015 | CURRENCY DEVELOPMENT EUR 1 in foreign currency | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | ||
| USD | 1.0814 | 1.0510 | 1.1821 | 1.1402 | 1.1192 | |
| JPY | 151.68 | 137.86 | 129.84 | 121.77 | 122.01 | |
| CHF | 0.9714 | 1.0040 | 1.0807 | 1.0704 | 1.1122 | |
| CNY | 7.6521 | 7.0754 | 7.6243 | 7.8688 | 7.7320 | |
| GBP | 0.8695 | 0.8523 | 0.8595 | 0.8888 | 0.8769 | |
| Source: Bloomberg, annual average daily price. | ||||||
Continuous drop in the inflation rate
The rate of inflation declined in the reporting year. At the end of 2023, it averaged 5.5% worldwide (previous year: 9.7%). The rate of inflation was 2.9% in Europe and 3.7% in Germany. Central banks again raised base rates significantly in the reporting year to combat inflation. The US Fed increased interest rates four times to 5.5%. The European Central Bank also increased its prime rate to 4.5% in six rate hikes.
Strong rise in average short- and long-term interest rates
Short- and long-term interest rates experienced strong increases on average over the year. Short-term rates climbed to levels last seen in 2008. The 6-month Euribor stood at an average of 3.69% in 2023. In the long-term segment, the average 10-year euro swap increased significantly year-on-year, from 1.93% to 3.05%.
| T016 | INTEREST RATE DEVELOPMENT in % | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Instrument | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | |
| 6-month Euribor Average rate | 3.69 | 0.68 | -0.52 | -0.37 | -0.30 | |
| 6-month Euribor Year-end level | 3.86 | 2.69 | -0.55 | -0.53 | -0.32 | |
| 10-year euro swap Average rate |
3.05 | 1.93 | 0.05 | -0.14 | 0.26 | |
| 10-year euro swap Year-end level |
2.49 | 3.20 | 0.30 | -0.26 | 0.21 | |
| Source: Bloomberg. | ||||||
The discount rate applied for discounting the pension obligations of Deutsche Lufthansa AG, which is derived from the average return on a basket of investment-grade corporate bonds, stood at 3.6%, which is 0.6 percentage points lower than the previous year’s figure of 4.2%.
Oil price down on the previous year
Following severe turbulence in 2022, the oil market was somewhat calmer in 2023. With prices between USD 72/barrel and USD 97/barrel, the average for 2023 was USD 82.18/barrel, which is 17% lower than the previous year (previous year: USD 99.03/barrel). On 31 December 2023, a barrel of Brent Crude cost USD 77.04 (year-end 2022: USD 85.91/barrel).
The jet crack, the price difference between crude oil and kerosene, moved between USD 13.71/barrel and USD 57.02/barrel in 2023. On average over the year, it traded at USD 29.58/barrel and thus 27% lower than in the previous year. On 31 December 2023, the jet crack was USD 29.18/barrel (year-end 2022: USD 39.34/barrel).