Outlook for the Lufthansa Group

Lufthansa Group assumes a positive course of business in the 2025 financial year

On the basis of the forecasts shown for the performance of the overall economy and the sectors in which the Group operates, the Lufthansa Group anticipates that the course of business in the 2025 financial year will be positive. This expectation is based in particular on the ongoing strong demand in the Passenger Airlines segment, which is reflected at the start of 2025 in the form of continued positive developments in new bookings. Orders in the MRO segment are also a sign that demand remains strong. At the same time, the Lufthansa Group expects that 2025 will be a year of transition: the turnaround programme at Lufthansa Airlines will not yet have achieved its full potential, although some initial successes are expected, and the majority of the next-generation aircraft on order will not have been delivered by year-end, although further deliveries are expected. The positive effects on earnings in 2025 will therefore be fairly slight.

Outlook subject to uncertainties

In view of the short booking cycles in the passenger business, the fact that freight business is driven mainly by the spot market, doubts about the exact delivery dates for new aircraft and uncertainties in the macroeconomic and geopolitical environment, the financial outlook for the Lufthansa Group is subject to a certain amount of uncertainty. The operating and financial performance is also subject to the further developments in Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and the Middle East conflict. Uncertainty in the macroeconomic outlook, particularly the effects on the economy of the steps taken by the major central banks worldwide to combat inflation, may potentially have a material influence on customer demand.

Further capacity expansion planned

Notwithstanding these uncertainties, the Lufthansa Group assumes that demand for air travel will rise again year on year in 2025. Flight capacity will therefore be expanded. Overall, the Lufthansa Group anticipates that available capacity for Passenger Airlines in 2025 will be around 4% higher than the previous financial year.

Lufthansa Group revenue and earnings expected to rise

A clear year-on-year increase in revenue is forecast for the Lufthansa Group in 2025. The Lufthansa Group expects Adjusted EBIT in 2025 to be significantly higher than the previous financial year. The main drivers are expected to be further capacity growth in the Passenger Airlines segment, likely fuel price movements and expected growth in the Logistics and MRO business segments.

Positive earnings performance expected in all business segments

For the Passenger Airlines segment, the Lufthansa Group is expecting a clear increase in revenue, based on ongoing strong demand and planned capacity expansion in 2025. A significant year-on-year increase is expected for Adjusted EBIT.

The Lufthansa Group is expecting a significant increase in revenue and in Adjusted EBIT year on year in the Logistics business segment. This reflects increasing business activity in relevant growth markets, such as Asia.

A clear increase in revenue and Adjusted EBIT is expected for the MRO business segment, also allowing for the fact that Lufthansa Industry Solutions will no longer be part of the MRO business segment due to a reorganisation within the Group. The reason for the anticipated positive revenue and earnings performance is ongoing strong demand for maintenance and repair services, which is nevertheless still offset by high cost inflation.

Adjusted free cash flow roughly on par with last year

Net capital expenditure by the Lufthansa Group in the 2025 financial year is expected to be between EUR 2.7bn and EUR 3.3bn. This will mainly be for investments in aircraft. Cash inflows from sale-and-lease-back agreements will partly offset higher gross capital expenditure.

Based on the forecast earnings performance, Adjusted free cash flow in 2025 is expected to be roughly on par with the previous year.

Doubts about the exact delivery dates for new aircraft are one of the main factors causing uncertainty in this respect.

Slight reduction in carbon emissions per passenger-kilometre expected

The Lufthansa Group aims to make further progress in reducing its environmental impact in 2025. The ongoing modernisation of the fleet is expected to have a positive impact on specific carbon emissions per passenger-kilometre. The Lufthansa Group therefore envisages a slight decline in specific carbon emissions year-on-year.