Macroeconomic outlook
Economic and sector-specific developments can have a significant influence on the operating and financial performance of the Lufthansa Group. The following forecast for the course of business is therefore based on assumptions about the development of the wider economy and the sector. These assumptions are described below. The Lufthansa Group continually monitors the development of this operating environment so that it can respond as quickly and comprehensively as possible to any changes.
Subdued economic growth is still expected for 2025.
According to data from S&P Global, global economic growth of 2.5% is forecast for 2025, compared with growth of 2.7% in the prior year. The European economy is predicted to grow by 1.2% (previous year: 1.0%). The expected growth rate for Germany of 0.4% is lower, but still higher than in 2024 (previous year: -0.2%).
Further economic developments in 2025 will depend partly on progressions in the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine and in the Middle East conflict, and which economic policy changes are initiated and implemented first by the new European Commission and the new governments in Germany and the United States of America.
| T044 | GDP DEVELOPMENT1) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast 2024 to 2028 compared with the previous year | |||||
| in % | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
| World | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| Europe | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Germany | -0.2 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| North America | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| South America2) | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 3.0 |
| Asia/Pacific | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.0 |
| China | 5.0 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.5 |
| Middle East | 1.4 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.9 |
| Africa | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.1 |
| Source: S&P Global as of 15 January 2025 1) Forecast. 2) Excluding Venezuela. | |||||
Central banks’ goal remains to contain inflation and simultaneously enable economic growth
Fiscal policy in the USA and the euro area, higher tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty will affect foreign exchange rates in the euro area. The European Central Bank and the US Fed will again aim to suppress inflation by adjusting interest rates in 2025.
Analysts expect the euro to strengthen slightly against the US dollar and the pound sterling on average in 2025. A slight decline is predicted against the other main currencies.
The European Central Bank will continue to cut interest rates if inflation in the euro area nears the target rate of 2%. The market has priced in three interest rates cuts for 2025 There are signs in the market that the US central bank (Fed) will cut interest rates in the same period.
Futures markets indicate slight decline in oil prices
Oil prices are expected to fall again slightly on the futures market. As of 31 December 2024, futures contracts for delivery in December 2025 were trading at USD 71.21/barrel, and those for delivery in December 2026 at USD 69.32/barrel. However, market participants still expect volatility to remain high and have identified a high degree of forecast uncertainty due to the ongoing Russian war of aggression against Ukraine and the Middle East conflict.