Macroeconomic outlook
Economic and sector-specific developments can have a significant influence on the operating and financial performance of the Lufthansa Group. The following forecast for the course of business is therefore based on assumptions about the development of the wider economy and the sector. These assumptions are described below. The Lufthansa Group continually monitors the development of this operating environment so that it can respond as quickly and comprehensively as possible to any changes.
The European and German economies again failed to keep pace with the world economy
According to data from S&P Global, global economic growth of 2.7% is forecast for 2026, which is a lower rate than in the previous year (previous year: 2.9%). The European economy is predicted to grow by 1.4% (previous year: 1.7%). This means that the European economy will again grow more slowly than the world economy. The expected growth rate for Germany is even lower at 0.8%, but the trend is stabilising at a low level (previous year: 0.3%).
Further economic performance in 2026 will largely be determined by the external political environment. This particularly includes the further course of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. In addition, foreign policy and trade decisions by the United States of America, along with any countermeasures taken by other geopolitical actors, may have a significant impact on the performance of the world economy. Germany’s performance will also depend on the economic, financial and social policy decisions taken by the German government.
| T044 | GDP development1) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast 2025 to 2029 compared with the previous year | ||||||
| in % | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
| World | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | |
| Europe | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | |
| Germany | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | |
| North America | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.9 | |
| South America2) | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.8 | |
| Asia/Pacific | 4.4 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.9 | |
| China | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | |
| Middle East | 3.6 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 2.9 | |
| Africa | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.1 | |
| Source: S&P Global as of 15 January 2026 1) Forecast. 2) Excluding Venezuela. | ||||||
Stable trend expected for inflation and exchange rates
Although inflation has subsided, it will remain a key topic for the monetary policy of the European Central Bank and the US Fed in 2026. The European Central Bank considers its inflation target of 2% to have been met. Accordingly, the capital markets do not expect interest rates to be cut or raised in 2026. By contrast, the market is expecting two more interest rate cuts from the US Fed.
Foreign exchange markets remain susceptible to geopolitical tensions, protectionist tendencies in trade policies and global uncertainty. Analysts expect the euro to strengthen slightly against the US dollar and to decline slightly against the Canadian dollar on average in 2026. A sideways trend is predicted against the other main currencies.
Futures markets suggest that oil prices will remain low
A supply overhang on oil markets meant that the crude oil price was lower at year-end 2025 than at the same point in the previous year. Futures prices for the years ahead point to a relatively stable price level, with a slight upward trend. As of 31 December 2025, futures contracts for delivery in December 2026 were trading at USD 60.22/barrel, and those for delivery in December 2027 at USD 61.30/barrel. The geopolitical risk factors described above may result in higher volatility on energy markets, however, and imply correspondingly high uncertainty in the forecast in terms of future price developments.